A decade-long longitudinal survey shows that the Supreme Court is now much more conservative than the public

Significance Leveraging three unique surveys collected over a decade that ask members of the public about the policy issues before the US Supreme Court, we show how the court stands relative to the public. As we demonstrate, the court has, since 2020, become much more conservative than the public and is now more similar to Republicans in its ideological position on key issues. We also find that members of the public update their beliefs about the court’s ideology when its composition and rulings change. Even so, many members of the public currently underestimate the court’s conservative leaning, which in turn makes them less likely to support making changes to the institution than they would otherwise.

any parole. Some people think that such juvenile defendants must be found to be incorrigible -or impossible of being reformed It should be LEGAL for employers to fire people based on their sexual orientation 126 Case #2. R.G. & G.R. Harris Funeral Homes Inc. v. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission 127 Some people believe that it should be illegal for employees to be fired for being transgender because it is discrimination on 128 the basis of sex. Other people think that it should be legal because it is not discrimination on the basis of sex. 129 What do you think? 130 It should be ILLEGAL for employees to be fired for being transgender. 131 It should be LEGAL for employees to be fired for being transgender. The state of Montana has banned students from using taxpayer-subsidized scholarships to attend religious schools. Some 141 people think this rule is an acceptable restriction. Other people think this rule violates people's constitutional rights. 142 What do you think? 143 States SHOULD be allowed to ban students from using taxpayer-subsidized scholarships to attend religious schools 144 States SHOULD NOT be allowed to ban students from using taxpayer-subsidized scholarships to attend religious schools 145 Case #5. Little Sisters of the Poor Saints Peter and Paul Home v. Pennsylvania 146 The Affordable Care Act requires that health insurance plans for women include coverage for contraceptives (birth control), 147 but the Trump administration recently passed regulations that greatly expanded exceptions to this mandate to include 148 exemptions on the basis of religious or "moral" objections. Some people think that employers should not be forced to cover 149 contraceptives if they express either a religious or a "moral" objection. Other people think that these employers should be 150 forced to cover contraceptives. States SHOULD be able to require their "electors" to vote for the candidate who won their state 193 States SHOULD NOT be able to require their "electors" to vote for the candidate who won their state Some people believe that a city should be allowed to try to increase racial diversity by denying the promotion of white 218 firefighters who passed a promotion test because no black firefighters passed the test. Other people believe that the city should 219 be required to abide by the results of the promotion test and promote the white firefighters even if no black firefighters are 220 promoted.

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What do you personally believe?

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The city should be allowed to deny the promotion of the white firefighters.

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The city must abide by the results of the test and promote the white firefighters Some people believe that states can require voters to provide photo identification at the polling place. Other  Some people believe that prohibiting corporations from contributing to political campaigns a violation of the right to free 232 speech guaranteed by the First Amendment. Other people believe that this is a legitimate restriction that promotes more 233 democratic elections.

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What do you personally believe?

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Prohibiting corporations from contributing to political campaigns is a violation of the right to free speech, 236 Prohibiting corporations from contributing to political campaigns is a legitimate restriction that promotes more democratic Some people believe that lethal injection should be allowed to be used to execute convicted criminals on death row. Other 240 people believe that using lethal injection is cruel and unusual punishment.

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What do you personally believe?

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Lethal injection should be allowed.

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Lethal injection is cruel and unusual punishment.

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Case #8: Parents Involved v. Seattle 245 Some people believe that school districts should be allowed to assign students to schools based on race in order to promote 246 diversity and reduce segregation. Other people believe that race should not play a factor at all in assigning students to schools. The federal government should be allowed to ban partial birth abortions.

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Banning partial birth abortions violates women's rights.

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Case #10: Hamdan v. Rumsfeld 257 Some people believe that the federal government should be allowed to conduct military trials of suspected terrorists in 258 Guantanamo Bay. Other people believe that these individuals have the right to be tried in the American court system.

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What do you personally believe?

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The federal government should be allowed to conduct military trials of suspected terrorists.

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Suspected terrorists have the right to be tried in the American court system   These numbers correspond to those in Figures 1 and 2  Note: Ideological direction of Court decision defines conservative as the position that is supported at a higher rate by Republican respondents than by Democratic respondents in our survey sample. This choice does not affect our overall ideology estimates since the ideal point model infers ideological direction based on the data. Ideological identification defined by response to question "In general, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?", with responses 1 to 5 corresponding to "Very liberal", "Liberal", "Moderate", "Conservative", and "Very conservative", respectively ("Not sure" responses treated as missing). year as compared to using only the cases included in the survey, particularly for respondents. Justice and Court ideology estimates are slightly different due to the "All Cases" estimates being informed by the many cases each term that are not included in the surveys. Information from these cases allows for more precise estimation of justice and Court positions than the "Surveyed Cases" scaling, in which each justice's position (and the Court's position) are quite imprecisely estimated.